Spatiotemporal analysis of transition probabilities of wet and dry days under SSPs scenarios in the semi-arid Susurluk Basin, Türkiye.

Precipitation, especially in regions dominated by the Mediterranean climate, is one of the most critical parameters of the hydrological cycle and the environment affected by climate change. One the one hand, the transition probabilities of wet and dry days in precipitation occurrence are a relatively new topic, on the other hand these are essential in defining the regional climate. For the first time, spatiotemporal variations of transition probabilities of wet and dry days in the Susurluk Basin, northwestern Türkiye, dominated by a semi-arid Mediterranean climate and also having a mountain climate, were analyzed based on the observation (1979-2014) and future terms (2030-2059 as short and 2070-2099 as long), under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. To do this, statistical downscaling was performed for 14 general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP6. By applying an ensemble of four high-performing GCMs, four indices for transition probabilities of wet and dry, i.e., a dry day following a dry day (FDD), a wet day following a dry day (FDW), a dry day following a wet day (FWD), and a wet day following a wet day (FWW), were calculated, and their changes were determined statistically. Monotonic and partial trends of the indices were also analyzed. According to the results, the FDD will increase in water year and wet period and autumn in the future, especially for the long term, in the basin dominated by the FDD (75 % in water year). The risks are higher in the western part of the basin, where human activities are intense, as the FDD is higher in this part than other parts especially in summer (90-100 %) in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the long term. So, the length of consecutive dry days in the wet period and water year will increase in the basin, thus increasing the likelihood of droughts. As for the intra-term trends, the FDD increases and the FWW decreases in the water year and seasons in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, contrary to the observation term.

Daily precipitation performances of regression-based statistical downscaling models in a basin with mountain and semi-arid climates.

The impacts of climate change on current and future water resources are important to study local scale. This study aims to investigate the prediction performances of daily precipitation using five regression-based statistical downscaling models (RBSDMs), for the first time, and the ERA-5 reanalysis dataset in the Susurluk Basin with mountain and semi-arid climates for 1979-2018. In addition, comparisons were also performed with an artificial neural network (ANN). Before achieving the aim, the effects of atmospheric variables, grid resolution, and long-distance grid on precipitation prediction were holistically investigated for the first time. Kling-Gupta efficiency was modified and used for holistic evaluation of statistical moments parameters at precipitation prediction comparison. The standard triangular diagram, quite new in the literature, was also modified and used for graphical evaluation. The results of the study revealed that near grids were more effective on precipitation than single or far grids, and 1.50° × 1.50° resolution showed similar performance to 0.25° × 0.25° resolution. When the polynomial multivariate adaptive regression splines model, which performed slightly higher than ANN, tended to capture skewness and standard deviation values of precipitations and to hit wet/dry occurrence than the other models, all models were quite well able to predict the mean value of precipitations. Therefore, RBSDMs can be used in different basins instead of black-box models. RBSDMs can also be established for mean precipitation values without dry/wet classification in the basin. A certain success was observed in the models; however, it was justified that bias correction was required to capture extreme values in the basin. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00477-022-02345-5.

Hypophosphatemia associated risk factors in pediatric intensive care patients.

San ES, Erdogan S, Bosnak M, San M. Hypophosphatemia associated risk factors in pediatric intensive care patients. Turk J Pediatr 2017; 59: 35-41. The aim of this work is to determine the prevalence and risk factors of hypophosphatemia in pediatric patients admitted to intensive care unit. The study was performed prospectively in patients admitted to the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit between June 2014 and December 2014. Fifty-seven patients were included in the study. The mean age of the study population was 24 months (2-192 months); 25 patients (43.9%) were male and 32 were female (56.1%). The mean body weight z-score was -1.47 ± 2.23, and 23 (40.4%) patients had malnutrition. On admission 16 (28.1%) patients had hypophosphatemia. There were no statistically significant differences between the hypophosphatemic patient group and normophosphatemic patient groups in terms of demographic and clinical characteristics. There were also no significant differences between the two groups in terms of risk factors. Potassium and creatinine levels were significantly lower in the hypophosphatemic group, compared to the normophosphatemic group. According to a multivariate logistic regression analysis, risk factors for hypophosphatemia were low potassium level (OR: 16.76; 95% CI: 2.09 - 134.72; p: 0.008), malignant solid tumors (OR: 52.40; 95% CI: 2.04 - 1,344.32; p: 0.017, p: 0.036). and female gender (OR: 6.18; 95% CI: 1.12 - 34.00; p: 0.036). Prospective studies with larger sample size should be conducted to study the prevalence and risk factors of hypophosphatemia at pediatric intensive care unit.

The Frequency of Epileptiform Discharges in Celiac Disease.

BACKGROUND: We studied patients with celiac disease to define the frequency of epileptiform discharges on electroencephalography. METHODS: A total of 307 children with a diagnosis of celiac disease (study group) and 197 age- and sex-matched healthy children as controls (control group) were included in this study. The study group was further divided into newly diagnosed celiac disease patients (n = 216) and patients who were on a gluten-free diet (n = 91) for at least 6 months. Medical histories of all children including age, sex, symptoms, weight, height, physical examination findings, and laboratory data were recorded. All patients underwent an electroencephalograph in a pediatric neurology electroencephalograph laboratory with a 32-channel electroencephalograph for 30 minutes. RESULTS: Twenty-five patients were defined to have epileptiform discharges (spike/sharp-wave discharges); 24 (7.8%) of those patients were in the celiac disease group and 1 (0.5%) was in the control group (P = 0.001). Among those 24 patients, 21 (9.7%) were in newly diagnosed celiac disease group and 3 (3.3%) were in the gluten-free diet group (P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Patients diagnosed with celiac disease are prone to epileptiform activities on electroencephalography and should be evaluated carefully. Moreover, strict adherence to a gluten-free diet early should be advised in those patients with epileptiform activities because it may effectively decrease the occurrence of epileptiform activities.